Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Stock market and Swine flu pandemic panacea...

“There is a certain lunatic fringe in the stock market, and there always will be whenever there is any successful bear movement going on… they will put the stocks up above what they should be and, when frightened, … will immediately want to sell out… when it is finally rid of the lunatic fringe, the stock market will never go back to 50 per cent of its present level…
We shall not see very much further, if any, recession in the stock market, but rather … a resumption of the bull market, not as rapidly as it has been in the past, but still a bull rather than a bear movement.”
--Economist Irving Fisher 1929 to a conference of bankers 2 days before the 1929 crash.

The lesson here is that if the financial advice you hear (media, professional, or otherwise) sounds like this they really are unintelligent to speak in absolutes or have other motivations that depend on that outcome. If those motivations diverge from yours, you are no longer getting advice but a sales pitch. 

Yes, it is that clear.

As a side note, someone forgot to tell San Diego last week that there was a swine flu pandemic 10 miles south of them and spreading into their community.