tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35267533203733148652011-11-27T19:01:45.544-05:00Objective, Competent... Relevant financial informationAaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comBlogger351100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-62822794799249272632010-06-15T13:43:00.003-04:002010-06-15T13:47:20.612-04:00

In response to this article from Businessweek Good idea. I suggest the government create some social welfare program. My idea would be that the benefit is high enough to ensure a person's welfare until the end of life. To make it affordable there must be some restrictions. To qualify a person must be elderly enough to honestly be unable to work in any occupation to provide for themselves. The

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-47668234069319009482010-01-28T14:50:00.003-05:002010-03-24T09:06:54.747-04:00

This is a continuation of my last entry "Healthcare and Financial Services, Can Either be Fixed?" See here. No reason to estimate the value of the advice if we don't know how much you paid. But what if you did know? To the penny. Every year. And not just some parts (like the amount you write a check for or transaction fees from a brokerage account), but all of it? IRA Custodial

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-45946216400686400502010-01-20T11:22:00.001-05:002010-03-24T09:08:07.013-04:00

This is Part 2 of a 3 part series. I know, sigh. As if another commentary is needed on either issue. But appropriate today as we wonder with the election yesterday, what's next. Let me get right to the point. What if the fee for health care, was paid in units of life expectancy? What if a brief office visit to the doctor visit would cost the patient 1 week of lost life, and to speak with the

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-72008593271093571512010-01-15T13:08:00.014-05:002010-03-24T09:08:36.993-04:00

This is part 1 of a series of 3. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."--Mark Twain We nod then shake our heads in complete agreement with commentators these days regarding the sad state of the "financial services" industry. But if you believe the term "financial services" defines anything, how much do you really understand

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-5121358411436764452009-07-29T09:49:00.007-04:002010-03-24T09:10:11.745-04:00

We've all been there... or at least I have. You open the mail to find a surprise bill that you cannot afford to pay. Of course it shouldn't be a surprise if you paid attention to where your money was going. Yes prior to my wonderful wife, and understanding personal finance to ignore the indoctrination of credit companies, I had debt. And a few times I couldn't pay a bill. So like millions, I

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-78435737110247132042009-07-24T13:33:00.008-04:002010-03-24T09:10:36.397-04:00

As everyone seems to be interested in what I have to say about the PE of the market from viewings of these past entries, here is an update on what I see over the past few days of quarterly earnings while it is still on everyone's mind. Update to Market Valuation and PE Market Valuation With 53% of S&P 500 companies reporting, Q2 '09 earnings are close to estimates of $10.56 per share. What does

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-13664882751214936832009-07-06T08:50:00.011-04:002010-03-24T09:11:21.746-04:00

This post from November of last year on Australian regulation is still one of the most read posts on my blog, and rightfully so. I consider it one of my most thoughtful, original, and well researched. But in sharing this information with other professional peers, and the public, I have realized further truth that I believe is worth your time to read. I will focus posts on these thoughts over the

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-79081897847808760332009-06-23T10:44:00.002-04:002010-03-24T09:13:48.136-04:00

So Florida changed the basis on property taxes for non-residents versus residents. Non-residents have a noticeable increase. Off the top of my head I don't remember specifics. But let's just say that the average snowbird would pay twice as much per year if staying an Indiana resident ($2,000 and maintaining a Florida condo). In flocks (sorry) these snow birds have decided to stop migrating (at

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-55233270911197736992009-06-17T10:06:00.019-04:002009-07-24T15:10:24.192-04:00

This is an update to my blog entry on market valuation that is important enough to reiterate and has additional details I am now willing to share with those who are not clients. Just as important are other thoughts that may have serious implications for the future that I will write about in coming weeks. The following chart is simple to understand. The left column heading is the PE, the top

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-89599355750904527302009-06-05T07:31:00.012-04:002010-03-24T09:16:33.777-04:00

So GM goes sort of bankrupt... finally (see this post from November 2008), and two coincidental and seemingly unrelated events happen. Tim Geithner (Treasury Secretary) has a visit to China to talk about currency issues (maybe to apologize for calling them out in January for currency manipulation). Um, excuse me. But didn't he know before he took the job that their Yuan is pegged to our dollar?

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-68196707304095592242009-05-20T08:38:00.001-04:002010-03-24T09:19:53.629-04:00

Subtitled- "No Help for Dudley Dooright" Last night I discovered (through the person's stupidity) an online scam on craigslist. The person attempted 2 times to sell a really nice Acura TL for $4,000 on Michigan based boards. They used the same e-mail address, and followed with the same Picassa account for more pictures. The first time they even had a picture of a carfax report from a different

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-20013214522216202032009-05-12T09:32:00.007-04:002010-03-24T09:21:03.945-04:00

John Maynard Keynes formulated the body known today as Keynesian economics is his largest work "General Theory" of 1936. Keynesian economics with its microeconomic cousin, neoclassical economics, is the basis for the actions of world governments over the past year of financial bailout and of the economic structure that preceded it (likely even fueled it). Keynesian economics states that in the

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-70156008090516234202009-05-12T08:52:00.005-04:002010-03-24T09:24:43.427-04:00

“There is a certain lunatic fringe in the stock market, and there always will be whenever there is any successful bear movement going on… they will put the stocks up above what they should be and, when frightened, … will immediately want to sell out… when it is finally rid of the lunatic fringe, the stock market will never go back to 50 per cent of its present level… We shall not see very much

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-64778086853124649792009-05-01T12:36:00.002-04:002009-05-01T12:44:28.209-04:00

Here is a useful website with links to online financial planning calculators all over the internet for all types of situations.http://www.choosetosave.org/calculators/Looking forward to a presentation at a conference in a few days with Harry Markowitz, the father of "Modern Portfolio Theory." We'll see how he views his Nobel Prize work after the occurrence of a statistically impossible event.

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-70804175337756231752009-04-28T13:58:00.003-04:002009-04-28T14:06:00.102-04:00

If you want to gain knowledge of personal financial planning issues (for free), I just found a great course to help you get there. It is quite detailed, broken into lessons, and has some useful add-on tools.http://ocw.uci.edu/courses/AR0102092/Thank you UC Irvine for being so progressive to help the public, and thank you to Get Rich Slowly for pointing this out to me and helping the public take

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-9962664882267840862009-04-06T07:30:00.004-04:002010-03-24T09:33:12.258-04:00

The following link is an article by Michael Osinski, one of the main people responsible for developing and implementing the means to repackage mortgages into traditional bonds (so they could be resold), then into CDO's allowing for various levels of risk. "My Manhattan Project" Many parties share responsibility for what has happened in our mortgage markets, but I believe this article displays

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-40359059366505092402009-04-03T10:07:00.005-04:002010-03-24T09:38:23.558-04:00

John Stewart has been one of the only people calling out some of the most obvious violators of public trust, the financial media. CNBC Financial Advice Jim Cramer Part 1 Jim Cramer Part 2 Jim Cramer Part 3 My favorite clip is Jim Cramer Part 3 where John Stewart really lays out a challenge to Mr. Cramer. The two of them have fired shots across the bow for some time. Amazingly in this

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-36665370015655083342009-04-01T14:08:00.006-04:002010-03-24T09:35:04.008-04:00

In reality, most of us will never step foot in a place like the resort the AIG execs ran up a $500,000 bill at, but we have each paid for that right thousands of times over now, not to mention we should get to take a private jet to get there. At least with the NFL owners, it seems less direct. We only fund them through multi-billion dollar tax rebates for new stadiums with more seating so they

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-28463143837819567492009-04-01T13:30:00.007-04:002010-03-24T09:37:35.637-04:00

So today we have the NFL justifying it's meeting at the same resort where AIG was lambasted for their retreat footed by taxpayer dollars. Much farther back in history, during economic hardship, the victorious underdog gave average Americans hope that even if everything is gamed sheer determination can beat the obviously better competitor. Even in horse racing and boxing (2 sports notorious for

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-55436331652495991332009-03-02T14:55:00.007-05:002010-03-24T09:39:02.606-04:00

Sorry for the delay on this promised post, but today is the perfect day to encourage you (sarcasm) and say, I can't make the numbers work to justify the market being this high today. It should still go down more. As a disclaimer, I will be speaking specifically of the S&P 500 currently at $706. Price Earnings Ratio ("PE") is simply the price of an investment divided by annual earnings. It tells

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-42654859453862442532009-03-02T12:49:00.009-05:002010-03-24T09:39:56.055-04:00

There has been a lot of rhetoric lately labeling the bailouts as socialism. I think the debate on both sides is really a lot of noise by people who are not thinking. What is true (and easily demonstrated) is the slow decline of democracy in America's public capital markets. And there are some very obvious and easy fixes to the problem. In a recent public presentation, I asked how many attendees

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-58753458456642671412009-02-08T15:18:00.010-05:002010-03-24T09:40:41.531-04:00

One of the most famous events to happen on my birthday (May 17th) was the signing of the Buttonwood Agreement in 1792 forming the New York Stock and Exchange Board. Previously exchanges of ownership in companies were handled by auctioneers who added substantial cost to transactions. The initial 24 broker-members agreed to charge each other "one quarter of one percent Commission on the Specie

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-55919658566462832322009-01-22T23:34:00.004-05:002010-03-24T09:41:42.000-04:00

The odd thing about financial op-ed is that most of it is backward looking and generally useless for aiding a person's financial success as well as preventing financial ruin. But every so often--usually about every 3 years, more recently every 6 months--an article appears that if it was the only thing you read, I mean really read with complete awareness, then acted on it, your financial

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-6618991471205639152009-01-07T09:30:00.008-05:002010-03-24T09:42:56.342-04:00

In the midst of a financial crisis everyone (myself included) looks to place blame. And we find a name--the worst of the worst--Madoff. Prior to finding that name we blame the institutions who propogated the crisis. But an institution is nothing more than a conglomeration of individuals who being of sound mind have the capacity and requirement to make judicious and ethical decisions every day.

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-27936707691023451332008-12-17T23:12:00.004-05:002010-03-24T09:43:53.503-04:00

I talked to someone today whose parents lost money with Madoff. The person when commenting on potential strategies his parents might use going forward said they are quite leery of alternative investments. Yet the investment strategy (real or perceived) is not the root issue as I explained to this person. Madoff's firm was dually registered as both a registered investment adviser (RIA) and a

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-39378999009358598782008-11-20T00:53:00.002-05:002008-11-20T01:52:09.537-05:00

During the Q&A time after a presentation I gave today, a number of people asked if we will/should bail out the auto industry. For brevity, I was unable to give the following sound answer.I first cited Richard Nixon when hearing that a company was too big to fail responded, "Tell it to get smaller."The estimates are slightly over 1 million US jobs are directly tied to the auto industry. Some say

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-77430195804484036532008-11-19T13:44:00.009-05:002009-07-06T08:42:45.966-04:00

So credit agencies are watching their tales and attempting to reposition themselves as objective thinkers. The following is the last statement I think they would make if it were not true.“…the Australian banks benefit from strong asset quality, sound capital positions, and good earnings profiles, which are partly due to the country's relatively favorable economic environment. Moreover, we expect

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-47091411221508140392008-11-12T11:34:00.004-05:002010-03-24T09:45:06.138-04:00

So all assets of all kinds are in a free-fall. Never to this extreme have stocks, bonds (conservative and aggressive), real estate, property (both commercial and residential), and commodities all taken it on the chin. Looking critically at this conundrum may give us insight into the root problem. Narrow-minded, self-interested politicians, corporate executives, and others view only their

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-13461502933910575592008-11-12T11:04:00.003-05:002008-11-12T11:12:07.594-05:00

Everyone needs to watch the 30 minute summary of this movie, and I mean EVERYONE...Yes some parts seem to take a few partisan shots, but the information is factual backed up by organizations on both sides of the aisle.

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-75201702281848887702008-11-02T15:02:00.004-05:002008-11-03T11:55:27.279-05:00

Presuming that the economic environment is not as tenuous as that of 1929 (which I think is a BIG presumption), a larger and more critical risk-factor exists today, and that is cash on hand.To get to the core issue, I am speaking of a household's ability to cover the bottom of Maslow's pyramid if everything fell apart, or gave the appearance it might. In the early 1990's households had over

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-56405450195250918572008-10-27T22:39:00.002-04:002008-10-27T22:43:52.743-04:00

In writing a letter tonight that will be distributed around our area, I was considering putting in "lemming-like behavior." After some brief research, I found the long-standing investment concept of lemmings who supposedly follow each other off a cliff is completely false. See snopes.com. The most entertaining thing about this factoid is that traditional Wall Street still uses this analogy all

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-4718562134327896992008-10-27T17:35:00.005-04:002008-10-27T22:38:51.920-04:00

So for the past number of years, reporting of CPI has slowly transitioned to media reporting core CPI (not including energy and food). The rationale is that including those highly volatile commodity-based components brings unnecessary volatility to the understanding of longer trends of CPI. This is understandable when you think of gas prices going from under $2 per gallon to over $4 per gallon

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-69641662984857975682008-10-27T12:17:00.002-04:002008-10-27T12:42:58.993-04:00

What is happening in the US Economy and the stock market? How bad could this get? Is the worst almost over? Don't we wish we all knew. Here is the analogy I have been giving to clients.So far all we know is that we do not have an out of control forest fire. Could we? Who knows. But there is plenty of smoke in the air.What would you do if you smelled something burning in a crowded theater and

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-36260248273144417402008-10-15T14:44:00.003-04:002009-06-11T12:07:06.198-04:00

I too have been sick over this whole financial mess, but unlike many other people (especially financial professionals) my malady started in April (see the first post). What are we to do???-- see belowFor me, the best part is that my malady is getting better, because I believe the most likely outcome is clear. And if an outcome is known, action can be taken. I am not advocating everyone run for

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3526753320373314865.post-60498075226965801192008-04-15T16:00:00.000-04:002008-04-15T16:01:58.142-04:00

Who pays in the government bailouts of companies, investors, and end consumers who took more risk than they were able to bear? The taxpayer......but not how you think.

Aaron Coateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17092071800892241726noreply@blogger.com